A Sydney doctor says it is too late to prevent a surge of critically-ill COVID-19 patients in Australia, warning there could be 10,000 cases of the virus next week.
Dan Suan, a clinical immunologist and researcher at the Garvan Institute, told SBS News he was very concerned that the number of coronavirus cases is now doubling roughly every three days.
There are at least 1,600 cases nationally and Dr Suan said at the current trajectory there could be 10,000 cases by the end of March.
"We're now in a situation where we're not going to be able to prevent a surge of critically-ill patients, the question is how big the surge is and whether or not we can manage that," he said.
Time for social isolation?
He said Australia's rise in cases is not as steep as in Europe, giving the country a bit more time to respond.
"But the problem is the curve is not flattening. It's going up at the same rate every day."
Dr Suan said Australians should immediately start social isolation, meaning people should stay home except for essentials and emergencies.
"This virus spreads between people … So I'm saying now, if you want to prevent a catastrophe in Australia, the community needs to lock itself down.
"If you are by yourself or with your family staying home, you cannot be part of the transmission process."
He is recommending all meetings of more than two people that are not "absolutely necessary" be cancelled, in line with Germany's approach this week.
He said Australians can still go grocery shopping and take other essential outings if they are mindful of the virus.
Dan Suan is a clinical immunologist and researcher at the Garvan Institute. Source: Garvan Institute
"If you don't need to touch something, don't touch it," he said.
Social distancing 'not enough'
Health authorities are urging Australians to practise social distancing by keeping 1.5 metres from others.
But Dr Suan said that's not enough.
"Every infection prevented today is many infections prevented down the track ... This week is much, much more important than next week. Our actions this week, our actions today, are the most important."
He said the decisions taken by Australians in the coming days "will literally determine the survival or deaths of tens to hundreds of thousands of their fellow Australians".
"If you continue to live your life like you have been doing, going out, seeing people, going about your daily life just like normal … you are participating in a process that is going to kill tens to hundreds of thousands of Australians."
He cited a paper in the journal Science, which found that four out of five people with COVID-19 in China could not identify where they got the virus from.
"What that tells you is that just by living your normal life, going to work, seeing friends, going out to a bar, just doing that is the cause of viral propagation."
On Sunday, Prime Minister Scott Morrison stepped up Australia's response, .
This photo of a crowded Bondi beach on Friday prompted authorties to close the beach. Source: AAP
"This should highlight to all Australians how serious this is and how hard we all have to work together to get this right," he said.
But Mr Morrison has not yet flagged wider community lockdowns.
Plea from health workers
Dr Suan said he and other health workers around Australia were well aware of the challenge ahead.
"I want the Australian people to be reassured that the Australian public hospital system will do what it needs to do to look after you and your family members," he said.
"We're going to do that at great personal risk, we will get exposed to coronavirus, we're concerned we're going to bring it home to our families.
A hospital worker in Adelaide this week. Source: AAP
"But when the time comes, we'll be there to look after you ... in return, we are asking you to please stay at home, now."
