An attempted coup over the weekend by soldiers contracted to the Wagner Group, a private army led by Russian President Vladimir Putin's former close ally Yevgeny Prigozhin, has raised many questions about the future trajectory of Russia's war against Ukraine.
Wagner mercenaries headed back to their base on Sunday after Mr Putin agreed to allow their leader to avoid treason charges and accept exile in neighbouring Belarus.
The agreement halted an extraordinary crisis but analysts said Wagner's revolt had exposed Mr Putin's rule as more fragile than previously thought.
Professor Brian Taylor, from Syracuse University in the US, is an expert in Russian studies. He said, "It's the most dramatic military-political confrontation in Russia in the last 30 years, since the time of the collapse of the Soviet Union, the early 1990s."
It was a turbulent weekend in Russia that could prove significant in the conflict, so here's a look at what has happened and what could happen next.
What happened during the attempted rebellion in Russia?
Wagner fighters crossed from occupied eastern Ukraine into the southern Russian city of Rostov-on-Don, then travelled en route to Moscow, via Voronezh.
From assessing geo-located footage, Washington-based think tank the Institute for the Study of War said Wagner forces came as close as 330 kilometres from the Russian capital, while Mr Prigozhin himself claimed that "in 24 hours we got 200 kilometres from Moscow".
The mutiny was the culmination of his long-standing feud with the Russian military's top brass over the conduct of the Russian operation in Ukraine.
Wagner fighters crossed from occupied eastern Ukraine into the big southern Russian city of Rostov-on-Don, then moved up the main motorway via Voronezh, en route to Moscow. Source: SBS News
Later the same day, however, he had accepted an agreement brokered by Belarus to avert Moscow's most serious security crisis in decades.
Mr Prigozhin was last seen late Saturday in an SUV leaving Rostov-on-Don, where his fighters had seized a military headquarters, to the cheers of some local people. Some shook his hand through the car window.
Trucks carrying armoured vehicles with fighters on them followed his car.
Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy and US President Joe Biden discussed the revolt on Sunday, ahead of a NATO summit in Lithuania next month.
"The world must put pressure on Russia until international order is restored," Mr Zelenskyy said on Twitter, adding that he had again invoked the possibility of "long-range weapons" for Ukraine as it pursues a counter-offensive against Russian occupiers.
What will Vladimir Putin do next after the Wagner incident?
Security measures were still in place in Moscow at the time of reporting although fewer police were visible, and passers-by said they were unconcerned, despite Mr Prigozhin's exact whereabouts remaining unclear.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Sunday that Wagner's aborted revolt exposed "real cracks" in Putin's authority.
Mr Prigozhin's rebellion marked "a direct challenge to Putin's authority," the top US diplomat said.
French President Emmanuel Macron took a similar line, saying the revolt "shows the divisions that exist within the Russian camp, and the fragility of both its military and its auxillary forces".
William Alberque, of the International Institute for Strategic Studies, told AFP: "This episode weakens the credibility of Putin, who appeared to be in panic on television on Saturday."
"Everyone in Moscow is wondering: 'If it was a five-minute insurrection, why did the president talk about civil war?'
"On the other hand, if Prigozhin stays alive, all the Russian security players will feel they have impunity."
The Russian State Duma is working on a law to regulate the Wagner Group, according to Russian Defense Committee head Andrey Kartapolov.
What will happen to the Wagner Group and Yevgeny Prigozhin?
Yevgeny Prigozhin is the owner of the Wagner Group. Source: AP / Prigozhin Press Service
Troops who did not participate in this uprising are going to be integrated into the Ministry of Defence.
"Apparently, everyone else is being dismissed but not charged.
"I suspect some of them will probably leave and they will be losing some of their best trained, most battle-hardened forces and forces who helped enforce discipline along the front lines, so it could weaken the Russian military effort somewhat, although not as much, perhaps, as if this had gotten completely out of control," he said.
Despite being the man who led the rebellion, Mr Prigozhin has had the charge of armed mutiny against him dropped.
However further details and insight into the deal he struck with Belarus are not clear.
LISTEN TO
'Prigozhin needs a new food taster' - analysts examine fallout of Wagner confrontation
SBS News
26/06/202308:21
Russia analysts do not expect Mr Prigozhin to disappear, as he has been a very vocal figurehead for his fighters in Ukraine, clashing with Mr Putin in the past over strategic decisions.
He has also been very important to the Russian president and some argue that the Wagner Group has been doing the government's bidding in Africa and Ukraine for a long time.
"And of course, if you're Yevgeny Prigozhin, you need to get a new food taster and watch your back, because I would think a lot of people, including Putin, will be rather angry with what we saw here," Professor Taylor said.
"And Putin often holds a grudge. He often wants to take revenge on those who he thinks stabbed him in the back, and that's exactly what he said ...this is a stab in the back."
Has the coup helped Ukraine?
The Wagner mercenary group's mutiny has weakened Mr Putin and could affect the course of the war in Ukraine, analysts say.
It's not clear if it will translate directly onto the battlefield - as Rob Lee of the Foreign Policy Research Institute points out, Wagner no longer had a key role in the Ukrainian theatre.
"Wagner forces were replaced in Bakhmut (in eastern Ukraine, the site of the war's longest and bloodiest battle) at the end of May-early June," Mr Lee wrote on Twitter.
"I don't think any Wagner troops are currently on the front lines, or were pulled from there for this event.
LISTEN TO
Has Ukraine's counteroffensive begun?
SBS News
06/06/202305:56
"Wagner is designed for assaults and not for defensive operations. It was never clear what role they would play during Ukraine's counteroffensive," he added.
Ukrainian soldiers returning from the front line on Sunday said the Wagner revolt had not noticeably affected fighting around Bakhmut, in eastern Ukraine.
What's happening with Ukraine's counter-offensive?
Ukraine said on Saturday the unrest offered a "window of opportunity" for its long-awaited counter-offensive.
But Moscow insisted the mutiny would not affect its operations in Ukraine. Russian strikes continued on Saturday, killing five people in Kyiv according to the city's mayor.
On Sunday, Russia said it repelled several Ukrainian assaults in the east and south of the country, where Kyiv had announced gains.
But experts believe the mutiny will be a blow to the morale of Russian troops in Ukraine, who have endured heavy losses over 16 months for marginal territorial gains.
"This must affect Russian morale," said Pierre Razoux, academic director of the France-based Mediterranean Foundation of Strategic Studies (FMES).
"On the Ukrainian side, there is perhaps a momentum to be used to break through the front line, or at any rate to gain positions".
Why did Belarus broker a deal with Mr Prighozin and the Wagner group?
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said he'd struck a deal with Mr Prigozhin, who agreed to de-escalate the situation.
Russian President Vladimir Putin (right) and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko met earlier this month. Source: AAP / Gavriil Grigorov/SPUTNIK/KREMLIN POOL/EPA
Mr Razoux warned Ukraine would "also have to secure the Belarus border because they are not safe from a treacherous blow.
"If 15,000 of Wagner's men pour in from Belarus, they can do some damage. Maybe that's what Prigozhin has negotiated with Putin."
