As cases of COVID-19 and the Omicron variant spread in Australia and abroad, so does uncertainty and panic over the disease.
NSW recorded the highest spike in cases in 10 weeks on Tuesday, with 804 new cases of COVID-19 recorded and 21 of those identified as the Omicron variant of concern.
There are now 85 Omicron cases in NSW, with more cases of the variant expected in the coming days.
Looking overseas, the first Omicron death has been recorded in Britain, with Health Secretary Sajid Javid saying the variant now accounted for 44 per cent of infections in London and would be the dominant strain in the capital within 48 hours. New Omicron infections are estimated at 200,000 per day, he said.
The United Kingdom has recorded a total of 4,713 Omicron infections as of Tuesday.
In Norway, the government has tightened restrictions over fears new cases could reach 300,000 per day in January. The country recorded 958 cases of the variant on Monday.
Denmark has recorded 3,437 Omicron infections in total as of Monday.
What can Australia expect from the Omicron variant?
Dr James Trauer, head of epidemiology modelling at Monash University’s School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, expects Australia to follow countries like the UK and South Africa and record a sharp increase in Omicron infections.
“We’ve seen that [Omicron has] very rapidly replaced Delta in South Africa and all of the modelling projections and predictions suggest [Omicron] is likely to replace Delta within the next few weeks in the UK,” Dr Trauer said.
“In Australia, we're not really trying to prevent that from happening … so I would expect a similar sort of thing to happen, that Omicron will replace Delta over probably the next couple of months in Australia.”
Dr Trauer said the news that Omicron will likely beat out Delta to become the more dominant strain may not be all bad.
“It’s still really early days … but we’re beginning to see some signal that probably Omicron is not going to be more severe than Delta,” he told SBS News.
“With a bit of luck, it's going to be less severe. It's going to be milder in terms of your risk of death … but it's still too early to say that with confidence.”
He said one of the greatest concerns is the increased burden that COVID-19 cases could place on hospitals over the holiday season, as border restrictions ease across the country.
Dr Trauer said it’s hoped Omicron will be less severe than other strains, which translates to a lower risk of death.
“If we get a huge number of cases coming through in the space of a few weeks, that can really cause huge stress on the healthcare system,” he said.
“We should really remember that countries overseas have been in that position where their health systems have been totally overwhelmed. And they haven't been able to provide oxygen, ventilators and nursing care to people who need it.
“And we've seen these huge overwhelming epidemics, particularly with Delta in places like India and Indonesia … so it's always a possibility and we have to make sure we continue to avoid that situation.”
Police on patrol at Waterloo Station, London, in the evening rush hour, where new restrictions have come into force to slow the spread of the Omicron variant. Source: Getty Images
Will our high vaccination rates provide protection against Omicron?
Dr Emily Edwards, a research fellow in the Department of Immunology at Monash University, said early signs show AstraZeneca and Pfizer vaccines are likely to offer protection against the Omicron strain.
“As we know from the Delta variant, we still got infection in people that were vaccinated but the cases of severe disease and hospitalisation and death were a lot lower with that variant because we had been vaccinated to a high level in Australia,” she told SBS News.
“In a sort of hypothetical world, that will also be the case with the Omicron variant. However, we can't definitively say that.
“This variant is still extremely new, it was only identified last month. So there's a lot of work happening worldwide to try and pinpoint exactly what our immune response to that variant is.”
What coverage will boosters provide against Omicron?
NSW Minister for Health Brad Hazzard has strongly emphasised the importance of booster doses in fighting the virus.
“Clearly the evidence is you need a third dose. We may even need more later on to keep us safe,” Mr Hazzard told reporters on Tuesday.
“For heaven's sake, go and get your booster," he said.
The Australian Technical Advisory Group on Immunisation (ATAGI) has recommended that anyone with immunodeficiencies have a booster two months after their second dose.
But ATAGI has recommended there be no widespread change to Australia's vaccine booster program in response to the emergence of the Omicron variant.
NSW Health Minister Brad Hazzard. Source: AAP
Dr Trauer said there have been some “reassuring” early results in the past couple of days out of the UK showing vaccination - particularly with a booster dose of an mRNA type vaccine will provide significant protection against Omicron.
“The early results from the UK suggests that Pfizer might be more protective than AstraZeneca and particularly with a booster that we get a high level of protection,” he said.
“So it does actually look like boosters are going to be a really important part of fighting the variant.”
He said emerging evidence shows those fully vaccinated with AstraZeneca would benefit from a booster shot, while Pfizer is “very effective and very protective.”
Dr Edwards said that with the widespread take-up of COVID-19 vaccines, the virus may eventually become endemic, which means it will be relatively constant among the population with predictable patterns.
“We think that for SARS-COV-2, which is the virus that causes COVID-19, it's quite likely that it's going to become endemic within the population and that we will most likely need seasonal vaccinations like we do for the influenza virus,” said.
“We need that basis of immunity to keep the virus in check, and to prevent it from mutating too frequently.”
But she warned the virus will continue to mutate and endanger Australians if vaccines are not accessible worldwide.
People pass a doctor's surgery offering both the Astra Zeneca vaccine and the Pfizer vaccine in the suburb of Lane Cove on July 27, 2021 in Sydney, Australia. Source: Getty
“Overseas in developing countries, when they haven't had the opportunity to be vaccinated, this is when we're going to hit the problem,” Dr Edwards said.
“While that is the case, that is where we're getting a lot of virus evolution … where the virus is mutating and it's infecting the population that are not as well-protected as we are.
“Viruses are going to keep mutating, and that's where we're going to struggle to get it to the endemic levels until we've got equitable vaccination worldwide.”
