North Korea could within months launch an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) that would strike Australia, according to a defence expert.
Intelligence assessments show North Korea has yet to perfect the means for an ICBM to survive atmospheric re-entry over the target, Dr Malcolm Davis from the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) said on Friday.
“But they could be within a few months of solving those problems,” he added.
“Once they solve those problems then theoretically, should the North Koreans choose to do so, then they could launch nuclear attacks on Australia.”
Dr Davis made the comments about northern Australia, with North Korea's capital Pyongyang located 5,747 kilometres from Darwin.
The North Korean capital is located less than 7,000 km from Cairns and Townsville, each of which have populations of more than 100,000 people and serve as major centres for tourism and industry.
North Korea has threatened to land four intermediate-range Hwasong-12 missiles over Japan less than 25 miles (40 kilometres) from Guam, the closest US territory.
A man watches a television screen showing Donald Trump and Kim Jong-Un during a news program at the Seoul Train Station, South Korea, Thursday, Aug. 10, 2017. Source: AP
Tough talk escalates
The rhetoric from North Korea and the United States has increased after the former was slapped on Saturday with UN sanctions drafted by the US for testing intercontinental ballistic missiles last month.
The tests are the latest in a series conducted by North Korea this year, including a medium-range ballistic missile in April, a ballistic missile in May and four anti-ship missiles off its east coast in June.
US President Donald Trump earlier this week threatened to bring “fire and fury” if North Korea continued to threaten the US, going a step further on Thursday by telling reporters at his New Jersey golf club that his comment might not have been “tough enough".
The same day, General Kim Rak-gyom, commander of North Korea’s strategic rocket forces, used state media to call President Trump “senile” and “bereft of reason”.
President Trump tweeted that military solutions were "locked and loaded should North Korea act unwisely".
The escalating situation led Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull to declare during a radio interview that his country would come to America’s aid in the event of North Korean attack.
“In terms of defence we are joined at the hip,” Mr Turnbull told Melbourne’s 3AW.
No defence upgrade
Mr Turnbull dismissed calls on Friday by former prime ministers Kevin Rudd and Tony Abbott to upgrade Australia’s missile-defence system.
Australia currently has no such system.
Mr Turnbull said while the government is constantly reviewing its position, advice from the Defence Department stated there was no benefit to deploying a system such as the Terminal High Altitude Area Defence (THAAD).
“The reason for that is that THAAD's designed to provide protection for relatively small areas against short-to intermediate-range missiles,” Mr Turnbull said.
“So it's deployed in Israel, it's deployed in South Korea. And it's not designed to provide protection against long-range, intercontinental ballistic missiles of the sort North Korea has recently tested.”
More diplomacy needed
In the absence of a government policy to increase missile defence, Australia should redouble its diplomatic efforts, according to Dr Daniel McCarthy from the University of Melbourne’s School of Social and Political Sciences.
“More sanctions are not going to get us to the place that we want to be,” he said.
“A military strike is not going to get us to where we want to be either. The only realistic option, which is the one that isn’t being pursued at the moment, is some kind of diplomacy.”
‘Strategic patience’ had not worked over the last decade in bringing North Korea’s nuclear program under control, Australian Foreign Affairs Minister Julie Bishop told the Seven Network on Thursday morning.
“All countries are being urged to implement those sanctions and I say that any country if it has a diplomatic or economic relationship with North Korea must use that leverage to force the nation to change its illegal behaviour and stop its ballistic missile testing and its nuclear weapons testing,” she told reporters in Canberra later that morning.
Inflated threat
Just because a country had nuclear weapons did not mean they would be used, Dr McCarthy said, pointing to a historical absence of nuclear use by so-called 'rogue states'.
“So when we think about the kind of threat that is actually posed by North Korea to Australia, to the United States, much of the threat is simply rhetorical in essence.”
“There’s no actual substantial threat. We’re making this into a much larger issue than it needs to be and as a result the diplomatic solutions seem to fade ever further into the background.”
Dangerous spiral
The world is in the midst of a “dangerous, acceleratory spiral,” ASPI’s Dr Davis said.
“Things are getting worse on a daily basis, potentially on an hourly basis. The question is what will the North Koreans do next?”
The Department of Defence has been contacted for comment.
