Key Points
- Extreme weather events are impacting large parts of the world
- Scientists say global warming is clearly playing a role in these events
It can be easy to ignore what happens in far-flung corners of the globe – but experts warn the flooding catastrophe unfolding in Pakistan is more than just another natural disaster.
“Let's stop sleepwalking towards the destruction of our planet by climate change,” United Nations chief Antonio Guterres said recently, as the death toll in Pakistan climbed above 1000.
“Today it’s Pakistan. Tomorrow, it could be your country.”
While floodwaters soak an entire third of Pakistan, parts of neighbouring China are bracing for their worst drought on record.
Workers repair a railway track that was damaged by floods following heavy rains on the outskirts of Quetta, Pakistan. Source: EPA / FAYYAZ AHMAD/EPA
It’s extremely difficult to unpick how climate change might be impacting a single weather event in isolation.
And it’s similarly hard to draw a link between extreme weather events in different parts of the globe.
But climate experts say these – and other natural disasters – could merely be a sign of things to come if global warming isn’t urgently reined in.
Pakistan – ‘a monsoon on steroids’
Just months ago, Pakistan was sweltering.
Temperatures were continuously climbing above 40 degrees Celsius, accelerating the thawing of glaciers in the country’s north.
Crops failed in the baking heat, and dozens of people died as blackouts paralysed the power grid.
Today, much of Pakistan is under water.
People affected by floods move to higher ground in Sehwan district, Sindh province, Pakistan. Source: EPA / REHAN KHAN
“It’s all one big ocean, there’s no dry land to pump the water out,” Pakistan’s climate change minister Sherry Rehman said.
Prime Minister Shehbaz Sherif said the flood was the “worst in the history of Pakistan”. Mr Guterres described the deluge as a “monsoon on steroids”.
It’s tough to know whether the heatwave is linked to the floods – or what role climate change is playing.
Flash floods triggered by heavy monsoon rains have killed over 1000 people across Pakistan. Source: AAP / Arshad Arbab
Professor Matthew England, a climate scientist at UNSW, said Pakistan’s catastrophic floods had all the hallmarks of climate change.
“These events are, without any doubt, being made worse by climate change. We can’t dismiss them as just weather events.
“We know with certainty that the atmosphere is more laden with moisture today, and that's because we've warmed the system.”
It’s not unusual for Pakistan to experience heatwaves or floods.
The concern, Professor England said, was how frequent, and how severe, these disasters were becoming.
“The other way to phrase it — We have one-in-100 year floods that are happening every decade.”
People affected by floods receive aid in Sehwan, Sindh province, Pakistan. Source: EPA / AAP
“As climate change happens, extreme events happen more often, and there’s a greater likelihood of seeing them at the same time,” Dr Meyer said.
“We might not be able to say they are directly linked, even if they are attributable to climate change.
“But there is an increased likelihood of these things happening.”
A record drought in China
As rains soak Pakistan, parts of central and southern China are coping with the other end of the climate spectrum.
Unusually-low rainfall and soaring summer temperatures are driving one of China's worst-ever droughts.
China's National Climate Centre has said the heatwave hanging over the country is the "strongest" since records began in 1961.
The Yangtze River, a key driver of agricultural productivity and the third-longest river in the world, is rapidly shrinking – limiting drinking water and starving cities of hydroelectric power.
People catch crabs on the Jialing River, a major tributary of the Yangtze River, in Chongqing, China. Source: AAP / STRINGER/EPA
“With heatwaves, we see really strong trends due to human-induced climate change,” he said.
“The heatwaves that we’ve seen recently - in the UK and in China – these probably wouldn’t be possible without climate change.
“It’s very difficult to achieve these temperatures without human-induced climate change.”
Part of the Yangtze river channel flowing through the urban area of Chongqing has dried up amid record-low water levels in the city. Source: AAP / STRINGER/EPA
Europe’s 'new normal'
Europe is experiencing its worst drought in some 500 years, according to a recent report by the Global Drought Observatory, with two-thirds of the continent currently impacted.
“We are currently noticing a wildfire season sensibly above the average and an important impact on crops production,” observatory researcher Mariya Gabriel said.
“Climate change is undoubtedly more noticeable every year.”
A firefighter works to contain a wildfire near Landiras, southwestern France, on 16 July 2022 . Source: AAP / SDIS 33
Dr King said it was almost guaranteed these extreme heat events would be felt more often.
“It’s hard to reach 40 degrees in the UK, for example, without human-induced climate change,” he said.
A man cools off in a fountain in downtown Madrid, Spain as a heatwave attacks southwestern Europe. Source: AAP / Manu Fernandez/AP
“These heatwaves are a weather event that is off the charts,” he said.
“But the summer they’re having now, according to analysis, will actually be on the mild side soon.
“It’s just so confronting to see what climate change is doing in Europe. If we carry on with business as usual, this will be a mild summer in just three or four decades.”
