Clinton vs Trump -- what's ahead now in US election

SBS World News Radio: Now that Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump have been officially nominated for United States president by their political parties, the final stage of the US presidential campaign begins.

Clinton vs Trump -- what's ahead now in US election

Clinton vs Trump -- what's ahead now in US election

The pomp and pageantry of the Republican and Democratic National Conventions is finished, but the race to the White House is far from over.

Now, Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton move to the next phase of trying to unite, if not the country behind them, at least their own party's voters, because voting is not compulsory.

Hillary Clinton's endorsement as the Democratic nominee came despite protests from delegates at the convention supporting her former rival, Bernie Sanders.

Not even Senator Sanders himself could quell his supporters, who chanted and cheered for him during his endorsement of Ms Clinton.

"I serve with her in the United States Senate and know her as a fierce advocate for the rights of children, for women and for the disabled. Hillary Clinton will make an outstanding president, and I am proud to stand with her tonight."

Donald Trump's campaign has also suffered from a lack of full party support, although his party does seem united on one issue -- Hillary Clinton.

Republican vice-presidential nominee Mike Pence had roused the Republican convention delegates when he attacked the Democratic candidate.

"Democrats are about to anoint someone who represents everything this country is tired of. You know, Hillary Clinton wants a better title, and I would, too, if I was already America's Secretary of the Status Quo."

The key now for both candidates will be turning their attention to the critical swing states.

A specialist in US politics at the United States Studies Centre in Sydney, David Smith, says the election will be fought in the Midwestern states, often referred to as the "rust belt" states.

"For Trump to win, his best chance is to win Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania -- states that are traditionally swing states, states that have recently gone Democratic in the last couple of elections but which could be up for grabs* if Trump can make a decisive appeal there, based on his appeal to communities that have been devastated by the loss of of manufacturing jobs. I think the real battle is going to be in the upper Midwest."

The statistical analysts Five Thirty Eight, who most closely predicted Barack Obama's surprisingly easy 2008 win, then his 2012 repeat, put Mr Trump marginally ahead in Ohio.

They also have him marginally ahead in another key state, Florida.

But they are predicting Ms Clinton will fare better in Michigan and Pennsylvania, and they say Ms Clinton has a 54 per cent chance of winning the presidency to Mr Trump's 46 per cent.

But David Smith says Ms Clinton will need to create more enthusiasm if she is going to keep her lead.

"Hillary Clinton is actually doing better than Barack Obama did with most demographic groups, except for one, and that is white men without college degrees. Trump is very, very popular with this group, though not so much with other groups. But certainly what Clinton needs to do is to convince the groups that are on her side of the need to actually come out and vote, and to volunteer for her campaign, and do all those things that can actually win her the election. At the moment, there doesn't seem to be the same level of enthusiasm as there was for Obama."

In the latest CNN/ORC poll, Ms Clinton had the support of only 34 per cent of white voters, compared with 56 per cent for Mr Trump.

Despite that support, David Smith says Mr Trump must widen his appeal if he is going to have a chance at reaching the White House.

"Like all Republicans, he faces a difficult electoral map, and he's got demography against him as well. His greatest appeal is to a slice of the electorate that is actually shrinking. What Trump essentially offers is to say, 'Everything so far has failed. What you need is a businessman, someone who thinks very differently, someone who has a very different skill set.'"

But US politics and race lecturer Helen Pringle says she does not believe Mr Trump will even try to win over black voters and she thinks he will find it hard to get Hispanic voters.

"As for attracting black voters, I don't think he's even going to try. I mean, the Republican Party has given up on black voters, I think, a long time ago. Hispanic voters are a little bit different. But even then, you know, given the rhetoric that's been coming from Trump, it's hard to see how he wants to secure their vote either. So I think his aim is not to broaden his appeal but to build on the base that he already has."

One thing that appears certain from early signs is the election will be fought not on policy but on the personalities of the businessman Mr Trump and the former First Lady Ms Clinton.

David Smith says the candidates will only talk at length about policy if one of them strikes up a debate -- which he thinks is unlikely to happen.

"I don't think there are going to be that many policy issues mentioned. It's going to be all about the candidates themselves, because each candidate perceives the other candidate's personality as their main weakness."

US voters will go to the polls on November 8.

 






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5 min read
Published 1 August 2016 5:00pm

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