Australia faces first nine-month period of negative net international movements in 75 years

Passengers in the baggage arrivals area of Sydney Domestic Airport.

Passengers in an usually quiet baggage arrivals area at Sydney Domestic Airport. Source: AAP

The period April to December this year will be the first nine-month period of negative net international movement since 1946.


According to ABS data, net international movements in September 2020 were negative 33,270, which brings the total net international movements from April to a negative 189,610.


Highlights:

  • The total net international movements from April to September has been a negative 189,610.
  • In September, the largest negative impact has been of people from the citizens of China, UK and India.
  • It would be the first nine-month period of negative net international movements since 1946.
Data Source: ABS
Data Source: ABS Source: SBS
Immigration law analyst Abul Rizvi explains, “On a pro-rata basis, this would give an overall outcome for the nine months April to December 2020. It would be the first nine-month period of negative net international movements since 1946.”

Mr Rizvi believes the net movements were down a because arrivals increased and departure decreased.
“Arrivals increased mainly because the government was allowing more people from overseas to enter within the overseas arrivals cap. That will rise again from mid-October to the larger cap of 25,000 people a month.

This means the overall arrivals from October to December would go up, totalling negative net international movements.
ABS
Source: ABS
In September this year, most negative movements were of Chinese citizens. 4160 Chinese citizens arrived in Australia, and 37,430 departed. So the net movement was negative 33270.

UK citizens. 3,990 UK citizens arrived in Australia while 24,810 people departed, bringing the net movements to be negative 20,820.

Listen to the podcast:

LISTEN TO
Australia faces first nine-month period of negative net international movements in 75 years image

Australia faces first nine-month period of negative net international movements in 75 years

SBS Hindi

23/10/202003:32
The net movement of Indian citizens was negative 16,400 as in September 5,470 Indian citizens arrived in Australia while 21,870 departed.

The net movement of Australian citizens has been negative since July 2020.
ABS
Source: ABS
Mr Rizvi says the negative movement from mainland China and India is likely to due to the departures of students and temporary graduates.

He opines that this trend might affect Australia’s long term population growth.

“It will affect the population growth because a portion of the net international movement will become a part of net overseas migration which is how the ABS estimates the resident population.

“It is likely that between the period April to December 2020 we will see possibly 300,000 net international movements and a percentage of that 300,000 will be counted in net overseas migration. That will offset the positive movement from January to March which will, I suspect, lead to a negative outcome for 2020 as a whole,” explains Mr Rizvi.

Share